Multidimensional Geriatric Prognostic Index, Based on a Geriatric Assessment, for Long-Term Survival in Older Adults in Korea

PLoS One. 2016 Jan 15;11(1):e0147032. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0147032. eCollection 2016.

Abstract

The patient´s survival estimate is important for clinical decision-making, especially in frail patients with multimorbidities. We aimed to develop a multidimensional geriatric prognosis index (GPI) for 3- and 5-year mortality in community-dwelling elderly and to validate the GPI in a separate hospital-based population. The GPI was constructed using data for 988 participants in the Korean Longitudinal Study on Health and Aging (KLoSHA) and cross-validated with 1109 patients who underwent a geriatric assessment at the Seoul National University Bundang Hospital (SNUBH). The GPI, with a total possible score of 8, included age, gender, activities of daily living, instrumental activities of daily living, comorbidities, mood, cognitive function, and nutritional status. During the 5-year observation period, 179 KLoSHA participants (18.1%) and 340 SNUBH patients (30.7%) died. The c-indices for 3- and 5-year mortality were 0.78 and 0.80, respectively, in the KLoSHA group and 0.73 and 0.80, respectively, in the SNUBH group. Positive linear trends were observed for GPI scores and both 3- and 5-year mortality in both groups. In conclusions, using common components of a geriatric assessment, the GPI can stratify the risk of 3- and 5-year mortality in Korean elderly people both in the community and hospital.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Activities of Daily Living
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Comorbidity
  • Female
  • Geriatric Assessment*
  • Humans
  • Korea
  • Longitudinal Studies
  • Male
  • Mortality*
  • Prognosis
  • Prospective Studies
  • Retrospective Studies

Grants and funding

This study was supported by grants from the National R&D Program for Cancer Control, Ministry for Health and Welfare, Republic of Korea (study no: 1320370) and from the Korean Health Technology R&D Project, Ministry for Health, Welfare and Family Affairs, Republic of Korea (grant No. A092077). The funding organizations had no role in the design and conduct of the study; in the collection, analysis, and interpretation of the data; or in the preparation, review, or approval of the manuscript.